CAVCO INDUSTRIES INC.

137.9 -1.97 (-1.43%) Sell

CVCO is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

CAVCO INDUSTRIES INC. has destroyed investor wealth today. It lost -1.43% to close at 137.9. It's recent 5 day performance has been -0.58%, -3.09%, +0.32%, +0.03% and -3.7%.

[Themes containing CVCO]

CVCO showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period CVCO lost -45.9% and saw a maximum drawdown of -45.9%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +40.12%.

Trend

CVCO has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 14 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CVCO outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days CVCO outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months CVCO was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.89% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.92%) was on Tuesday, 13 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -23.05%) was on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and went on till 11 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -17.35% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 13 Nov, 2018 and ended on 16 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +11.28% to investors.

CVCO had 8 profitable and 4 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, number of profitable months of CVCO and SP500 index were the same. CVCO significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +21.87% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CVCO had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.

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CVCO is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CVCO's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CVCO has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CVCO. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CVCO in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CVCO.

Based on your interest in CVCO you may find it interesting to know that AMRH and AYTU have both shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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