CITRIX SYSTEMS INC

110.26 -0.06 (-0.05%) Buy

CTXS investors take a moment to reassess their portfolio allocation

13 min read

CTXS delivered massive losses today. On a longer term basis, investors in CITRIX SYSTEMS INC made -0.01% per day. Thursday's performance of -0.05% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing CTXS]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CTXS experienced a maximum drawdown of -10.2% over the last three months. It delivered -0.43% during this flat trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were marginally more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +5.49%.

Trend

CTXS has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 26 Sep, 2017 to 12 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, CTXS outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months CTXS was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.0% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.67%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.63%) was on Friday, 19 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 losing days, which started on 1 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.44% of investor capital.

During the last year CTXS had 8 profitable months and 4 loss making months. Profitable number of months of CTXS and SP500 index were the same. CTXS significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +12.68% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CTXS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both CTXS and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Everything is always feasible if you run a corporate finance exercise: you can always try to come out with a justification on how things could work. But the real issue is to say how do you translate that into practice.

CTXS is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CTXS's volatility from 3 Oct, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CTXS has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect CTXS to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes CTXS a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CTXS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CTXS in your portfolio. CTXS usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

On a general note (since you are interested in CTXS), two mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are LULU and TWTR. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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