19.75 -0.18 (-0.9%) Sell

Want to invest in CTRN? Avoid as it is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it

13 min read

CTRN is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. On a longer term basis, investors in CITI TRENDS INC made 0.0% per day. Tuesday's performance of -0.9% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing CTRN]

CTRN showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period CTRN returned -34.73% and saw a maximum drawdown of -35.14%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +26.26% to investors.


CTRN has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 6 Apr, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, CTRN underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days CTRN underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months CTRN was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.66% per day. It's best return during this period (of +2.9%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -10.36%) was on Friday, 30 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 8 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +5.94% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -18.48% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, CTRN delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. CTRN delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. CTRN significantly outperformed SP500 index in Mar 2018, when it returned +39.49% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CTRN had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -39.24%.

I owe my success to having listened respectfully to the very best advice, and then going away and doing the exact opposite.
-- G. K. Chesterton

CTRN is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CTRN's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 30 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CTRN has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CTRN. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CTRN in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CTRN.

Based on your interest in CTRN you may find it interesting to know that BURL, HQY and ZBRA are small caps that have all shown remarkable performance and qualify to be on every investor's watchlist.

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