18.29 -0.71 (-3.89%) Sell

Prayers for CTRL investors as it was among the worst performers

13 min read

CONTROL4 CORP was among the worst performers today. It delivered -3.89% to close at 18.29. During the last week it delivered -8.55% and saw a maximum drawdown of -8.55%.

[Themes containing CTRL]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CTRL experienced a maximum drawdown of -49.67% over the last three months. It delivered -49.67% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +42.57%.


CTRL has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 19 Jan, 2016 to 14 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CTRL outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months CTRL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -1.02% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.75%) was on Tuesday, 16 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -16.94%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -22.14% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw CTRL's investors making profits in 4 months and incurring losses in 8 months. CTRL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. CTRL significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +27.45% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CTRL had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Jan 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -31.55%. It is interesting to note that both CTRL and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Success seems to be connected with action. Successful people keep moving. They make mistakes, but they don't quit.
-- Conrad Hilton

CTRL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CTRL's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CTRL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CTRL. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CTRL in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CTRL.

Based on your interest in CTRL you may find it interesting to know that VIPS and IX are highly volatile and therefore risky. Investors should consider limiting their exposure to these instruments (because of their volatile nature).

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