28.56 -0.92 (-3.22%) Sell

CSII is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS INC delivered massive losses today. It returned -3.22% to close at 28.56. During the last week it returned -7.48% and saw a maximum drawdown of -7.48%.

[Themes containing CSII]

CSII is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +18.44% for investors.


CSII has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 11 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, CSII outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days CSII outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

CSII returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.42% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -19.67%, during this period, on Wednesday, 31 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 1 Nov, 2018 and went on till 7 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +15.34% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 8 Nov, 2018 and ended on 14 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -11.52% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, CSII delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. CSII delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. CSII significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +31.73% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CSII and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both CSII and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If you took our top fifteen decisions out, we'd have a pretty average record. It wasn't hyperactivity, but a hell of a lot of patience. You stuck to your principles and when opportunities came along, you pounced on them with vigor.
-- Charlie Munger

CSII is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CSII's volatility from 12 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CSII has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CSII. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CSII in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CSII.

On a general note (since you are interested in CSII), PFE is a large cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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