CARRIZO OIL & GAS INC

12.515 -1.32 (-10.54%) Sell

CRZO investors disappointed by market underperformance

13 min read

CARRIZO OIL & GAS INC significantly underperformed on Friday. It returned -10.54% to close at 12.515. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 73% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing CRZO]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CRZO experienced a maximum drawdown of -52.38% over the last three months. It returned -46.93% during this strong down trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +46.93% for investors.

Trend

CRZO has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 10 Oct, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CRZO underperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months CRZO was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.93% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.42%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -10.54%) was on Friday, 14 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 19 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.88% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 14 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -33.71% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, CRZO delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. CRZO delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. CRZO was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -30.13% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. CRZO had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year.

Money is a terrible master but an excellent servant.
-- P.T. Barnum

CRZO is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CRZO's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 6 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CRZO has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CRZO. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CRZO in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CRZO.

On a general note (since you are interested in CRZO), MSFT is a large cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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