COPA HOLDINGS, S.A. (FOREIGN)

77.84 +0.44 (+0.57%) Buy

Sun shines over CPA investors as it ranks among the best performers

13 min read

COPA HOLDINGS, S.A. (Foreign) outperformed on Friday. It surged by +0.57% to close at 77.84. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 67% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing CPA]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CPA experienced a maximum drawdown of -18.84% over the last three months. It fell by -2.69% during this bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were marginally more profitable than the long signals.

Trend

CPA has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 12 Jan, 2016 to 21 Nov, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CPA outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

CPA returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average 0.0% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -10.61%, during this period, on Friday, 16 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 9 Oct, 2018 and ended on 15 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.67% of investor capital.

During the last year CPA had 3 profitable months and 9 loss making months. CPA returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. CPA was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Aug 2018, returned -17.88% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. CPA had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -34.05%. It is interesting to note that both CPA and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The only way to beat an index is to invest in something other than the index. Why would you, when the only source of long-term risk and return data is the index ?
-- Hebner, Mark.

CPA is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CPA's volatility from 27 Sep, 2018 to 15 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CPA has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect CPA to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes CPA a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CPA. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CPA in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CPA.

Based on your interest in CPA you may find it interesting to know that VIPS, IMTE and IX are all extremely risky investment candidates that must be evaluated carefully. Investors with low risk profile are better off avoiding them till their performance becomes more consistent.

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