COTY INC.

7.31 -0.28 (-3.82%) Sell

COTY investors incur serious losses

13 min read

COTY INC. is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It delivered -3.82% to close at 7.31 which is it's 52 week low, down -66% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing COTY]

Buy-and-Hold investors in COTY experienced a maximum drawdown of -44.07% over the last three months. It delivered -40.62% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +16.15%.

Trend

COTY has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 24 Feb, 2016 to 8 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, COTY underperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

COTY returned losses on 51% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.74% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -22.54%, during this period, on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 6 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +13.28% to investors.

The last 12 months saw COTY's investors making profits in 2 months and incurring losses in 10 months. COTY was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. COTY was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -23.63% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. COTY had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Jan 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -33.62%. It is interesting to note that both COTY and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

I never dreamed about success, I worked for it.
-- Estee Lauder

COTY is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in COTY's volatility from 2 Oct, 2018 to 16 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that COTY has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in COTY derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than COTY. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than COTY in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than COTY.

Based on your interest in COTY you may find it interesting to know that NVCN and IMTE are highly volatile and therefore risky. Investors should consider limiting their exposure to these instruments (because of their volatile nature).

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