14.68 +0.05 (+0.34%) Sell

COT shows sign of weakness as investors do cost averaging

13 min read

COTT CORP is looking better than most other alternatives on Tuesday. It grew by +0.34% to close at 14.68. It is currently trading -14% below it's 52 week high of 17.25.

[Themes containing COT]

COT is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for COT's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -5.05%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to COT.


COT has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, COT outperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days COT outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months COT was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.07% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.17%) was on Thursday, 27 Sep, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.09%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 1 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +4.93% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 15 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.46% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, COT delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. COT delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. COT was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -12.67% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. COT had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -7.63%.

Empty pockets never held anyone back. Only empty heads and empty hearts can do that.
-- Norman Vincent Peale

COT is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in COT's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 12 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that COT has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than COT. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than COT in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than COT.

Based on your interest in COT you may find it interesting to know that AYTU and EPIX have both shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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