CNX MIDSTREAM PARTNERS LP

18.0 -0.58 (-3.23%) Buy

CNXM investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

CNX MIDSTREAM PARTNERS LP significantly underperformed on Friday. It lost -3.23% to close at 18.0. It is currently trading -14% below it's 52 week high of 20.98.

[Themes containing CNXM]

CNXM is currently in a up trend. Over the last three months trading long signals has not been a profitable strategy for CNXM's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -8.81%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current uptrend by limiting your allocation to CNXM.

Trend

CNXM has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CNXM outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days CNXM outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months CNXM was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.14% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.09%) was on Monday, 3 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.23%) was on Friday, 14 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 20 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +0.4% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 22 Oct, 2018 and ended on 25 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -3.9% of investor capital.

CNXM had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, CNXM underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. CNXM significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +18.43% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. CNXM had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -9.24%. It is interesting to note that both CNXM and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Your investment belongs to the market and your profits belong to you.
-- Vijay Kedia

CNXM is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in CNXM's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 1 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CNXM has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that CNXM is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CNXM. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CNXM in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CNXM.

On a general note (since you are interested in CNXM), if you are an investor in NVCN, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.

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