CANADIAN IMPERIAL BANK OF COMMERCE (Foreign) delivered good returns on Friday. It grew by +0.21% to close at 80.78. It is currently trading -19% below it's 52 week high of 99.88.
Buy-and-Hold investors in CM experienced a maximum drawdown of -16.42% over the last three months. It lost -13.67% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +12.97%.
CM has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 23 Feb, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, CM underperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days CM underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months CM was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.23% per day. It's best return during this period (of +1.88%) was on Wednesday, 21 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.37%) was on Thursday, 29 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 20 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +2.58% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 2 Oct, 2018 and ended on 15 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -6.77% of investor capital.
CM had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, CM underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. CM was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -9.05% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. CM had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both CM and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
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CM is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CM's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 6 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CM has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
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