28.39 -0.81 (-2.84%) Sell

CIR is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

CIR is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. On a longer term basis, investors in CIRCOR INTERNATIONAL INC made +0.01% per day. Thursday's performance of -2.84% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing CIR]

Buy-and-Hold investors in CIR experienced a maximum drawdown of -41.39% over the last three months. It returned -39.12% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +36.8%.


CIR has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 16 Feb, 2017. CIR is currently at it's worst performance to the SP500 index and therefore does not make a good investment candidate. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, CIR underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days CIR underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months CIR was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.75% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.46%) was on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -8.64%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 18 Sep, 2018 and went on till 20 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +2.2% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 15 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -21.0% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, CIR delivered profits in more months over the last year, than losses. CIR delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. CIR was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -31.28% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. CIR had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both CIR and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If we command our wealth, we shall be rich and free. If our wealth commands us, we are poor indeed.
-- Edmund Burke

CIR is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CIR's volatility from 2 Oct, 2018 to 7 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CIR has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CIR. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CIR in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CIR.

Based on your interest in CIR you may find it interesting to know that ICPT is highly volatile and investors investing in it must take extreme caution. Consider either reducing your exposure to ICPT or sufficiently diversifying your portfolio.

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