19.03 -0.42 (-2.21%) Sell

CHUY is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

CHUY'S HOLDINGS, INC. is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It returned -2.21% to close at 19.03. During the last week it returned -5.98% and saw a maximum drawdown of -7.26% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing CHUY]

CHUY is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for CHUY's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -32.04%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to CHUY.


CHUY has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 13 Jan, 2016. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CHUY underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days CHUY underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months CHUY was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.55% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.35%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -21.78%) was on Wednesday, 7 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 20 Sep, 2018 and went on till 24 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -10.75% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 3 Oct, 2018 and ended on 9 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +7.19% to investors.

On monthly basis, CHUY delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. CHUY delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. CHUY was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -12.19% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. CHUY had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -43.92%. It is interesting to note that both CHUY and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

A highly developed stock exchange cannot be a club for the cult of ethics.
-- Max Weber

CHUY is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CHUY's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 12 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CHUY has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect CHUY to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes CHUY a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than CHUY. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than CHUY in your portfolio. CHUY usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in CHUY you may find it interesting to know that PFE and MSFT are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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