17.08 -0.41 (-2.4%) Sell

Waiting to invest in CG? Avoid at the moment as it significantly underperformed

13 min read

CG significantly underperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in CARLYLE GROUP L.P. made +0.02% per day. Thursday's performance of -2.4% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing CG]

CG showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period CG delivered -27.16% and saw a maximum drawdown of -29.27%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +25.37%.


CG has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 22 Sep, 2017 to 11 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, CG underperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days CG underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months CG was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.47% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.71%) was on Wednesday, 21 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.04%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 9 Nov, 2018 and ended on 20 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -19.77% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw CG's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. CG was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. CG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -12.02% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. CG had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered -35.93%. It is interesting to note that both CG and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Our incomes are like our shoes; if too small, they gall and pinch us; but if too large, they cause us to stumble and to trip.

CG is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CG's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CG has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

CG has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, CG must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CG.

On a general note (since you are interested in CG), three instruments that deserve special mention are AMRH, ~SMALLCAP and AYTU. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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