CFFI investors check their stop-losses as it underperforms
14 Dec, 201813 min read
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C & F FINANCIAL CORP delivered lacklustre performance on Friday. It returned -0.34% to close at 49.85. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 14% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.
CFFI is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +9.83% for investors.
CFFI has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 18 Dec, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, CFFI underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days CFFI underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
CFFI returned losses on 59% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.25% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.28%, during this period, on Tuesday, 6 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 20 Sep, 2018 and went on till 25 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.35% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 26 Oct, 2018 and ended on 31 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -3.5% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, CFFI delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. CFFI delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. CFFI was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -17.71% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. CFFI had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.
"As in roulette, same is true of the stock trader, who will find that the expense of trading weights the dice heavily against him.
CFFI is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in CFFI's volatility from 4 Oct, 2018 to 9 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that CFFI has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
CFFI has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, CFFI must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than CFFI.
On a general note (since you are interested in CFFI), two instruments that deserve special mention are TPNL and I. They have significantly outperformed the overall market this year.
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