45.4 -1.04 (-2.28%) Sell

Doubt in the minds of BLD investors as it was among the worst performers

13 min read

TOPBUILD CORP is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it today. It fell by -2.28% to close at 45.4. During the last week it fell by -3.67% and saw a maximum drawdown of -4.94% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing BLD]

BLD is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +26.76% for investors in the last three months.


BLD has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 18 Feb, 2016 to 8 Jun, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, BLD outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months BLD was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.45% per day. It's best return during this period (of +8.11%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.88%) was on Thursday, 18 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 26 Sep, 2018 and ended on 5 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -14.05% of investor capital.

During the last year BLD had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. BLD returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. BLD was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -19.14% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. BLD had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Jun 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -56.1%. It is interesting to note that both BLD and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pound ought and six, result misery.
-- Charles Dickens

BLD is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BLD's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 1 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BLD has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

BLD has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, BLD must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BLD.

Based on your interest in BLD you may find it interesting to know that NFEC, I and DFBG have all shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investor's watchlist.

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