BIG LOTS INC

31.0 -7.15 (-23.08%) Sell

BIG investors dump it

13 min read

BIG LOTS INC ranked among the worst performers on Friday. It fell by -23.08% to close at 31.0. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 70% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0233%.

[Themes containing BIG]

BIG is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 3 bearish signals have generated a profit of +20.21% for investors.

Trend

BIG has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 15 Aug, 2016 to 7 Dec, 2018. One must note that BIG is currently at it's worst performance to the SP500 index which makes it a bad investment candidate. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, BIG underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days BIG underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

BIG returned losses on 51% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.48% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -23.08%, during this period, on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 profitable days, which started on 21 Nov, 2018 and went on till 29 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +9.06% to investors.

During the last year BIG had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. BIG returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. BIG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -28.83% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. BIG had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -35.26%. It is interesting to note that both BIG and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Buy at the point of maximum pessimism; sell at the point of maximum optimism.
-- Sir John Templeton

BIG is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BIG's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 7 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BIG has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect BIG to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes BIG a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BIG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than BIG in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BIG.

Based on your interest in BIG you may find it interesting to know that CSCO and AMZN are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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