31.19 +0.34 (+1.1%) Buy

Time to party for BGS investors as it outperforms

13 min read

B&G FOODS, INC. delivered stellar performance on Thursday. It gained +1.1% to close at 31.19. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 68% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.

[Themes containing BGS]

Buy-and-Hold investors in BGS experienced a maximum drawdown of -18.16% over the last three months. It lost -1.14% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were marginally more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +6.5%.


BGS has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, BGS underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days BGS underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

BGS returned losses on 52% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.0% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +4.09%, during this period, on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 21 Sep, 2018 and went on till 4 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -16.33% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 2 Nov, 2018 and ended on 7 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +8.99% to investors.

BGS had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, BGS underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. BGS significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +23.74% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. BGS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

Security depends not so much upon how much you have, as upon how much you can do without.
-- Joseph Wood Krutch

BGS is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BGS's volatility from 8 Oct, 2018 to 6 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BGS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BGS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than BGS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BGS.

Based on your interest in BGS you may find it interesting to know that CSCO and PFE are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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