BERRY GLOBAL GROUP INC

46.96 -1.26 (-2.67%) Sell

BERY is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

BERY was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in BERRY GLOBAL GROUP INC made -0.07% per day. Monday's performance of -2.67% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing BERY]

Buy-and-Hold investors in BERY experienced a maximum drawdown of -19.24% over the last three months. It delivered -6.47% during this bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals.

Trend

BERY has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 26 May, 2017 to 22 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, BERY outperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months BERY was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.09% per day. It's best return during this period (of +9.61%) was on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.62%) was on Tuesday, 25 Sep, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 profitable days, which started on 12 Oct, 2018 and went on till 17 Oct, 2018. This bullish trend returned +3.24% to investors.

The last 12 months saw BERY's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. BERY was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. BERY significantly outperformed SP500 index in Nov 2018, when it returned +15.36% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. BERY had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both BERY and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"There are no patents in finance.

BERY is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BERY's volatility from 24 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BERY has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BERY. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than BERY in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BERY.

On a general note (since you are interested in BERY), two instruments that deserve special mention are NFEC and ECYT. They have significantly outperformed the overall market this year.

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