46.58 -0.58 (-1.25%) Sell

BC is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

BRUNSWICK CORP ranked among the worst performers on Friday. It delivered -1.25% to close at 46.58 which is it's 52 week low, down -32% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing BC]

Buy-and-Hold investors in BC experienced a maximum drawdown of -32.71% over the last three months. It delivered -31.94% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +30.06%.


BC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 1 Feb, 2017 to 13 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, BC underperformed the SP500 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days BC underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months BC was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.58% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.72%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.64%) was on Thursday, 13 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 29 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -22.96% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw BC's investors making profits in 8 months and incurring losses in 4 months. During the last year, BC and SP500 index had the same number of profitable months. BC was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -21.94% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. BC had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

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BC is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in BC's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that BC has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect BC to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes BC a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than BC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than BC in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than BC.

Based on your interest in BC you may find it interesting to know that TWTR and ABMD are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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