AYTU BIOSCIENCE, INC

0.904 -0.01 (-1.53%) Buy

Stop-loss on the minds of AYTU investors as it ranked worse than it's peers

13 min read

AYTU BIOSCIENCE, INC has destroyed investor wealth on Friday. It delivered -1.53% to close at 0.904. It is currently trading -98% below it's 52 week high of 75.8.

Buy-and-Hold investors in AYTU experienced a maximum drawdown of -74.41% over the last three months. It delivered -68.03% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +63.22%.

Trend

AYTU has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 20 Oct, 2017 to 3 Oct, 2018. Over the last 1 year and 2 months, AYTU underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

During the last three months AYTU was mostly loss making and delivered on average -1.44% per day. It's best return during this period (of +14.77%) was on Friday, 30 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -36.14%) was on Friday, 5 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 7 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +9.58%) started on 10 Oct, 2018 and went on till 18 Oct, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -78.61%) started on 1 Oct, 2018 and went on till 9 Oct, 2018.

The last 12 months saw AYTU's investors making profits in 2 months and incurring losses in 10 months. AYTU was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. AYTU was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -77.98% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. AYTU had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -150.75%. It is interesting to note that both AYTU and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Try to save something while your salary is small; It's impossible to save after you begin to earn more.
-- Jack Benny

AYTU is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in AYTU's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 18 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AYTU has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect AYTU to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes AYTU a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

AYTU has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, AYTU must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AYTU.

Based on your interest in AYTU you may find it interesting to know that TYHT has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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