ALLEGHENY TECHNOLOGIES INC delivered massive losses on Thursday. It returned -2.07% to close at 24.61. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 77% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0002%.
Buy-and-Hold investors in ATI experienced a maximum drawdown of -17.34% over the last three months. It returned -9.26% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +5.21%.
During the last three months ATI delivered profits on 51% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +4.83%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -6.47%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 17 Sep, 2018 and went on till 25 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +9.21% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 28 Sep, 2018 and ended on 4 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -5.12% of investor capital.
On monthly basis, ATI delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. ATI delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. ATI significantly outperformed SP500 index in Apr 2018, when it returned +13.69% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ATI had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ATI and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
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ATI is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ATI's volatility from 2 Oct, 2018 to 24 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ATI has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
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