11.62 -0.58 (-4.99%) Sell

Doubt in the minds of ARD investors as it was among the worst performers

13 min read

ARD was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in ARDAGH GROUP S.A. (Foreign) made -0.14% per day. Tuesday's performance of -4.99% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing ARD]

Buy-and-Hold investors in ARD experienced a maximum drawdown of -31.53% over the last three months. It fell by -28.27% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +24.18%.


ARD has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 31 May, 2017 to 11 Dec, 2018. One must note that ARD is currently at it's worst performance to the SP500 index which makes it a bad investment candidate. Over the last 1 year and 9 months, ARD underperformed the SP500 index on 56% days.

ARD returned losses on 60% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.51% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -6.57%, during this period, on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 26 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -19.55% of investor capital.

During the last year ARD had 4 profitable months and 8 loss making months. ARD returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ARD was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -18.29% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ARD had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from May 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -24.26%.

Everyday is a bank account, and time is our currency. No one is rich, no one is poor, we've got 24 hours each.
-- Christopher Rice

ARD is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ARD's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 26 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ARD has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ARD to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ARD a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

ARD has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, ARD must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ARD.

On a general note (since you are interested in ARD), two small cap instruments that deserve special mention are BURL and ZBRA. They have significantly outperformed the overall market.

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