35.0 -0.57 (-1.63%) Sell

ARCB is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

ARCBEST CORP significantly underperformed on Friday. It lost -1.63% to close at 35.0. It is currently trading -31% below it's 52 week high of 50.9.

[Themes containing ARCB]

ARCB showed a strong down trend over the last 3 months. During this period ARCB lost -24.16% and saw a maximum drawdown of -29.62%. There were 3 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +13.45% to investors.


ARCB has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 21 May, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, ARCB outperformed the SP500 index on 52% days.

During the last three months ARCB was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.38% per day. It's best return during this period (of +12.66%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -11.55%) was on Friday, 5 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 24 Sep, 2018 and went on till 26 Sep, 2018. The bullish trend returned +6.01% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 9 Oct, 2018 and ended on 15 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -7.43% of investor capital.

ARCB had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, ARCB underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. ARCB significantly outperformed SP500 index in May 2018, when it returned +47.82% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ARCB had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

"There are two kinds of investors, be they large or small: those who don't know where the market is headed, and those who don't know that they don't know. Then again, there is a third type of investor -the investment professional, who indeed knows that he or she doesn't know, but whose livelihood depends upon appearing to know.

ARCB is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ARCB's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 28 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ARCB has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ARCB. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ARCB in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ARCB.

On a general note (since you are interested in ARCB), three instruments that have performed similar to ARCB are GNC, PGLC and JAKK. They must all be evaluated as alternative investment options and for diversification.

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