29.0 -2.7 (-9.32%) Sell

APU investors take a massive hit

13 min read

AMERIGAS PARTNERS LP ranked among the worst performers on Tuesday. It lost -9.32% to close at 29.0 which is it's 52 week low, down -39% from it's 52 week high.

[Themes containing APU]

Buy-and-Hold investors in APU experienced a maximum drawdown of -28.43% over the last three months. It lost -27.73% during this strong down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +21.22%.


APU has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 29 Jul, 2016. APU is currently at it's worst performance to the SP500 index and therefore does not make a good investment candidate. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, APU underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days APU underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months APU was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.49% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.6%) was on Friday, 30 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.32%) was on Tuesday, 11 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 19 Sep, 2018 and went on till 26 Sep, 2018. The trend delivered -3.32% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 16 Nov, 2018 and ended on 21 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +3.77% to investors.

APU had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, APU underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. APU was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -21.96% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. APU had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 2 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both APU and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

No wealth can ever make a bad man at peace with himself.
-- Plato

APU is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in APU's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 11 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that APU has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect APU to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes APU a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than APU. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than APU in your portfolio. APU usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in APU you may find it interesting to know that EHC and HQY are both small caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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