APPFOLIO INC

60.24 -0.12 (-0.2%) Sell

APPF continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

13 min read

APPFOLIO INC ranked worse than it's peers today. It fell by -0.2% to close at 60.24. During the last week it fell by -0.56% and saw a maximum drawdown of -1.75% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing APPF]

Buy-and-Hold investors in APPF experienced a maximum drawdown of -37.3% over the last three months. It fell by -29.87% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +20.76%.

Trend

APPF has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 21 Mar, 2016 to 13 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, APPF outperformed the SP500 index on 54% days.

During the last three months APPF was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.52% per day. It's best return during this period (of +7.37%) was on Wednesday, 28 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -9.11%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -17.61% of investor capital.

During the last year APPF had 8 profitable months and 4 loss making months. Profitable number of months of APPF and SP500 index were the same. APPF was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -24.89% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. APPF and SP500 index, both had periods of 6 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both APPF and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

There is nothing wrong with changing a plan when the situation has changed.
-- Seneca

APPF is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in APPF's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 27 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that APPF has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than APPF. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than APPF in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than APPF.

Based on your interest in APPF you may find it interesting to know that CSCO is a large cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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