31.61 +0.41 (+1.28%) Sell

APOG does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

APOGEE ENTERPRISES, INC. ranked among the best performers on Tuesday. It delivered +1.28% to close at 31.61. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 12% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at +0.01%.

[Themes containing APOG]

APOG showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period APOG fell by -24.31% and saw a maximum drawdown of -27.44%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +24.31%.


APOG has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 26 Jan, 2017 to 13 Dec, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 14 days, APOG underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days APOG underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months APOG was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.42% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.53%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.16%) was on Friday, 26 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 losing days, which started on 4 Dec, 2018 and ended on 17 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -16.71% of investor capital.

During the last year APOG had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. APOG returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. APOG was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -16.05% compared to -7.75% returned by SP500 index in Dec 2018. APOG had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower.
-- Steve Jobs

APOG is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in APOG's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 27 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that APOG has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect APOG to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes APOG a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than APOG. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than APOG in your portfolio. APOG usually has shorter drawdown period than the SP500 index.

Based on your interest in APOG you may find it interesting to know that ZBRA, WNC and SLP have all performed similar to APOG and qualify as alternative investment candidates that must be evaluated for diversification.

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