APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT LLC

26.09 -0.63 (-2.43%) Sell

Doubt in the minds of APO investors as it significantly underperforms

13 min read

APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT LLC significantly underperformed today. It fell by -2.43% to close at 26.09. During the last week it fell by -7.45% and saw a maximum drawdown of -8.97% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing APO]

Buy-and-Hold investors in APO experienced a maximum drawdown of -27.95% over the last three months. It fell by -22.92% during this strong bearish trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals. The net profit from Short signals was +13.54%.

Trend

APO has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 3 Feb, 2016 to 1 Feb, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, APO outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months APO was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.38% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.91%) was on Wednesday, 21 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.71%) was on Tuesday, 4 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -16.34% of investor capital.

During the last year APO had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. APO returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. APO was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -17.1% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. APO had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both APO and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite.

APO is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in APO's volatility from 18 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that APO has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect APO to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes APO a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

Investors trading in APO derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

APO has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, APO must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than APO.

Based on your interest in APO you may find it interesting to know that TWTR and LULU are both mid caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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