AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS INC

157.16 -4.1 (-2.61%) Buy

Stop-loss on the minds of APD investors as it performed worse than the broader market

13 min read

AIR PRODUCTS & CHEMICALS INC was among the worst performers on Friday. It returned -2.61% to close at 157.16. It is currently trading -9% below it's 52 week high of 174.0.

[Themes containing APD]

Buy-and-Hold investors in APD experienced a maximum drawdown of -12.72% over the last three months. It returned -5.36% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals.

Trend

APD has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 3 days, APD underperformed the SP500 index on 48% days. Which indicates that on days APD underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months APD delivered profits on 50% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +3.57%) was on Monday, 3 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.93%) was on Tuesday, 9 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and went on till 24 Oct, 2018. The trend delivered -6.93% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 29 Oct, 2018 and ended on 8 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +7.66% to investors.

On monthly basis, APD delivered profits and losses in equal number of months. APD delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. APD was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -8.9% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. APD had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both APD and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Stay on top of your finances. Don't leave that up to others.

APD is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in APD's volatility from 2 Oct, 2018 to 19 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 10 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that APD has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than APD. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than APD in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than APD.

On a general note (since you are interested in APD), HQY is a small cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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