50.95 -1.49 (-2.93%) Sell

APC is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

ANADARKO PETROLEUM CORP was among the worst performers today. It fell by -2.93% to close at 50.95. During the last week it fell by -0.22% and saw a maximum drawdown of -3.06% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing APC]

APC is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +7.07% for investors.


APC has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 13 Dec, 2016 to 11 Sep, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, APC underperformed the SP500 index on 51% days.

APC returned losses on 53% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.33% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -5.86%, during this period, on Tuesday, 20 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 17 Oct, 2018 and ended on 24 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -13.39% of investor capital.

During the last year APC had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. APC returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. APC was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -22.61% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. APC had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 5 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both APC and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"A budget tells us what we can't afford, but it doesn't keep us from buying it.

APC is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in APC's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 31 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that APC has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

Investors trading in APC derivatives at this moment can consider 'Protective Collar' options strategy to receive better risk-adjusted returns.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than APC. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than APC in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than APC.

Based on your interest in APC you may find it interesting to know that V is a large cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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