149.71 -4.79 (-3.2%) Sell

Don't buy ANSS now, it is an investor's nightmare

13 min read

ANSYS INC delivered massive losses on Friday. It delivered -3.2% to close at 149.71. It is currently trading -21% below it's 52 week high of 189.51.

[Themes containing ANSS]

ANSS showed a strong bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ANSS delivered -18.57% and saw a maximum drawdown of -23.13%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +14.64%.


ANSS has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 3 Nov, 2016 to 14 Sep, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, ANSS outperformed the SP500 index on 56% days.

ANSS returned losses on 58% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.3% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.18%, during this period, on Thursday, 8 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 4 Oct, 2018 and ended on 11 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -16.79% of investor capital.

The last 12 months saw ANSS's investors making profits in 7 months and incurring losses in 5 months. ANSS was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than SP500 index. ANSS was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Oct 2018, returned -19.6% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. ANSS had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year.

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ANSS is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ANSS's volatility from 27 Sep, 2018 to 20 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ANSS has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ANSS. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ANSS in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ANSS.

Based on your interest in ANSS you may find it interesting to know that UNH and MSFT are both large caps that have shown remarkable performance and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.

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