AUTOLIV INC ranked among the best performers on Tuesday. It delivered +1.23% to close at 76.46. On a day when the overall market breadth was 35%, it closed higher than 18% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0004%.
ALV is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months trading short signals has not been a profitable strategy for ALV's investors in general. However, this strategy had significantly lower risk when compared to Buy-and-Hold investing (which returned -11.33%). It is therefore better to tread with caution in the current downtrend by limiting your allocation to ALV.
ALV has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 27 Jan, 2016 to 5 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 7 days, ALV underperformed the SP500 index on 45% days. Which indicates that on days ALV underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.
During the last three months ALV delivered profits on 50% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +5.14%) was on Thursday, 20 Sep, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.92%) was on Friday, 7 Dec, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 4 losing days, which started on 27 Sep, 2018 and ended on 2 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -2.67% of investor capital.
During the last year ALV had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. ALV returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ALV significantly outperformed SP500 index in Jan 2018, when it returned +19.04% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ALV had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -19.36%. It is interesting to note that both ALV and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
Many people take no care of their money till they come nearly to the end of it, and others do just the same with their time.
-- Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
ALV is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ALV's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ALV has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ALV to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ALV a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.
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