1.8 +0.07 (+4.05%) Sell

AKAO does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

ACHAOGEN, INC. delivered good returns today. It grew by +4.05% to close at 1.8. During the last week it grew by +21.62% and saw a maximum drawdown of -6.08% before bouncing back.

[Themes containing AKAO]

Buy-and-Hold investors in AKAO experienced a maximum drawdown of -70.24% over the last three months. It returned -60.7% during this strong down trending period. There were no long signals during this period, where the short signal generated good profits of +60.7% for investors.


AKAO has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 10 Mar, 2017. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 8 days, AKAO underperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

During the last three months AKAO was mostly loss making and delivered on average -1.27% per day. It's best return during this period (of +20.86%) was on Monday, 10 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -15.09%) was on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 1 Oct, 2018 and went on till 3 Oct, 2018. The bullish trend returned +16.41% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 2 Nov, 2018 and ended on 16 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -82.64% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, AKAO delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. AKAO delivered profits less regularly than SP500 index. AKAO was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -58.18% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. AKAO had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 7 straight months (from May 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -176.7%. It is interesting to note that both AKAO and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"Watch your finances like a hawk.

AKAO is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in AKAO's volatility from 14 Sep, 2018 to 17 Sep, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 13 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AKAO has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that AKAO is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than AKAO. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than AKAO in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AKAO.

On a general note (since you are interested in AKAO), AMD is a mid cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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