3.19 +0.24 (+7.41%) Sell

Joy for AGI investors as it manages to marginally outperform broader market

13 min read

ALAMOS GOLD INC (Foreign) outperformed on Monday. It surged by +7.41% to close at 3.19. On a day when the overall market breadth was 34%, it closed higher than 8% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark SP500 index closed today at -0.0191%.

[Themes containing AGI]

AGI is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 3 bearish signals have generated a profit of +25.91% for investors.


AGI has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 11 Jul, 2016 to 30 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, AGI underperformed the SP500 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days AGI underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

AGI returned losses on 60% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.54% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -8.29%, during this period, on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +13.79%) started on 30 Nov, 2018 and went on till 10 Dec, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -16.6%) started on 24 Oct, 2018 and went on till 31 Oct, 2018.

During the last year AGI had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. AGI returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. AGI was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Nov 2018, returned -19.3% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. AGI had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 4 straight months during the last year.

The habit of saving is itself an education; it fosters every virtue, teaches self-denial, cultivates the sense of order, trains to forethought, and so broadens the mind.
-- T.T. Munger

AGI is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in AGI's volatility from 1 Oct, 2018 to 14 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AGI has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect AGI to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes AGI a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

AGI has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, AGI must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AGI.

On a general note (since you are interested in AGI), two instruments that have been extremely volatile in recent times are ICPT and GNK. Investors in these instruments should consider reducing their exposure (to ICPT and GNK) and diversifying their portfolios.

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