54.64 -0.88 (-1.6%) Sell

AGCO is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

AGCO CORP was among the worst performers today. It fell by -1.6% to close at 54.64. It's recent 5 day performance has been +1.09%, -1.2%, -2.04%, -2.46% and -1.82%.

[Themes containing AGCO]

AGCO showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period AGCO fell by -7.55% and saw a maximum drawdown of -19.24%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +3.97%.


AGCO has been underperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 3 Oct, 2017 to 25 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 9 days, AGCO underperformed the SP500 index on 47% days. Which indicates that on days AGCO underperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally worse than on the days it outperforms the SP500 index.

During the last three months AGCO delivered profits on 50% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a loss. It's best return during this period (of +4.44%) was on Tuesday, 30 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.77%) was on Wednesday, 24 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trends during this period were 6 profitable and losing days. The bullish trend (which returned +13.86%) started on 25 Oct, 2018 and went on till 1 Nov, 2018 while the bearish trend (which returned -12.49%) started on 17 Oct, 2018 and went on till 24 Oct, 2018.

During the last year AGCO had 5 profitable months and 7 loss making months. AGCO returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. AGCO was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Dec 2018, returned -8.45% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. AGCO had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Apr 2018) during which period it delivered -13.76%. It is interesting to note that both AGCO and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

It takes as much energy to wish as it does to plan.
-- Eleanor Roosevelt

AGCO is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in AGCO's volatility from 17 Sep, 2018 to 30 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AGCO has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect AGCO to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes AGCO a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than AGCO. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than AGCO in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AGCO.

On a general note (since you are interested in AGCO), MSFT is a large cap that deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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