38.8 -1.18 (-3.05%) Buy

AEM investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

AEM ranked among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD (Foreign) made +0.02% per day. Friday's performance of -3.05% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing AEM]

Buy-and-Hold investors in AEM experienced a maximum drawdown of -11.56% over the last three months. It gained +13.92% during this strong up trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, while the long signals were significantly more profitable than the short signals. The net profit from Long signals was +3.18%.


AEM has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 10 days, AEM outperformed the SP500 index on 50% days. Which indicates that on days AEM outperforms the SP500 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the SP500 index.

AEM was profitable on 52% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.23% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +5.76%, during this period, on Thursday, 11 Oct, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 5 Nov, 2018 and went on till 13 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -10.25% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 30 Nov, 2018 and ended on 7 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +13.66% to investors.

AEM had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, AEM underperformed SP500 index on monthly return basis. AEM was also a more risky investment than SP500 index as it's worst month in the last year, Feb 2018, returned -19.44% compared to -7.28% returned by SP500 index in Oct 2018. AEM had a longer winning streak of losing months than SP500 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Jul 2018 to Sep 2018) during which period it delivered -25.8%.

Never spend your money before you have it.
-- Thomas Jefferson

AEM is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing a rise in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in AEM's volatility from 1 Oct, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that AEM has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that AEM is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

AEM has more chance of extreme outcomes than the SP500 index. Therefore, AEM must receive a lower allocation than SP500 in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than AEM.

On a general note (since you are interested in AEM), PRQR has performed really well this year and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.

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