25.65 -0.28 (-1.08%) Sell

Don't buy ADSW now, it is an investor's nightmare

13 min read

ADSW significantly underperformed today. On a longer term basis, investors in ADVANCED DISPOSAL SERVICES, INC. made -0.03% per day. Friday's performance of -1.08% was a underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing ADSW]

ADSW showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ADSW fell by -5.32% and saw a maximum drawdown of -10.4%. There was a short signal during this period which returned +0.7%.


ADSW has been outperforming the SP500 index in recent time. It showed significant outperformance (compared to the SP500 index) from 26 Feb, 2018 to 23 Nov, 2018. Over the last 2 years 2 months and 8 days, ADSW outperformed the SP500 index on 53% days.

ADSW returned losses on 51% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.07% per day. It delivered it's worst daily return of -8.75%, during this period, on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 5 losing days, which started on 19 Oct, 2018 and ended on 25 Oct, 2018. This bearish trend lost -4.93% of investor capital.

During the last year ADSW had 6 profitable months and 6 loss making months. ADSW returned profits in fewer months than SP500 index. ADSW significantly outperformed SP500 index in Aug 2018, when it returned +8.46% compared to +4.75% returned by SP500 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jan 2018. ADSW had a shorter streak of profitable months than SP500 index. It only went up in 3 straight months during the last year. It is interesting to note that both ADSW and SP500 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

The challenge is not to pick the best investment. The challenge is to pick the right investment.
-- Don Connelly

ADSW is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the SP500 index is seeing increase in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ADSW's volatility from 28 Sep, 2018 to 2 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant surge in the SP500 index's volatility from 25 Sep, 2018 to 29 Oct, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ADSW has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ADSW to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ADSW a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

SP500 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ADSW. Therefore, SP500 must receive a lower allocation than ADSW in your portfolio. SP500 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ADSW.

Based on your interest in ADSW you may find it interesting to know that INFO has delivered similar performance as ADSW and can be considered as an alternative investment candidate (to ADSW).

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