TRAVEL THEME is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it
23 Jan, 201913 min read
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Travel was among the worst performers on Wednesday. It increased by +0.1% to close at 1309.71. It is currently trading -27% below it's 52 week high of 1797.38.
~TRAVEL is currently in a bearish trend. The current bearish signal has generated a profit of +7.78% for investors in the last three months.
~TRAVEL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 3 Jul, 2017 to 22 Jan, 2019. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ~TRAVEL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 51% days.
During the last three months ~TRAVEL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.12% per day. It's best return during this period (of +3.67%) was on Monday, 17 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -5.21%) was on Thursday, 25 Oct, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 6 losing days, which started on 3 Dec, 2018 and ended on 10 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -9.51% of investor capital.
The last 12 months saw ~TRAVEL's investors making profits in 3 months and incurring losses in 9 months. ~TRAVEL was less consistent in delivering monthly returs than NIFTY-50 index. ~TRAVEL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -17.95% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~TRAVEL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Apr 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -8.63%. It is interesting to note that both ~TRAVEL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.
It's not how much money you make, but how much money you keep, how hard it works for you, and how many generations you keep it for.
-- Robert Kiyosaki
~TRAVEL is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ~TRAVEL's volatility from 25 Oct, 2018 to 19 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.
Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~TRAVEL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.
~TRAVEL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, ~TRAVEL must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~TRAVEL.
Based on your interest in ~TRAVEL you may find it interesting to know that RESPONIND and CUB have both shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investors' watchlist.
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