Transport THEME

1045.14 -12.76 (-1.22%) Buy

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TRANSPORT THEME continues it's uptrend, although on a weaker note

13 min read

Transport showed marginal outperformance today. It delivered -1.22% to close at 1045.14. It's recent 5 day performance has been +0.36%, -0.78%, +0.87%, +2.52% and +0.78%.

[Theme constituents]

~TRANSPORT is currently in a bullish trend. Over the last three months 2 bullish signals in ~TRANSPORT have generated a profit of +17.97% for investors.

Trend

~TRANSPORT has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 8 Jan, 2016 to 1 Oct, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, ~TRANSPORT underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 51% days.

During the last three months ~TRANSPORT was mostly profitable and delivered on average +0.39% per day. It's best return during this period (of +4.04%) was on Thursday, 15 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.27%) was on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 9 profitable days, which started on 29 Oct, 2018 and went on till 9 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +10.77% to investors.

The last 12 months saw ~TRANSPORT's investors making profits in 5 months and incurring losses in 7 months. During the last year, ~TRANSPORT and NIFTY-50 index had the same number of profitable months. ~TRANSPORT was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -19.34% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~TRANSPORT had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +24.01%. It is interesting to note that both ~TRANSPORT and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

When you stop chasing the wrong things you give the right things a chance to catch you.
-- Lolly Daskal

~TRANSPORT is currently seeing overall fall in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in ~TRANSPORT's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 10 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~TRANSPORT has significant positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect ~TRANSPORT to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes ~TRANSPORT a good candidate for investing on short-term bullish trends or even counter-trends hoping for a pull-back.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~TRANSPORT. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ~TRANSPORT in your portfolio. ~TRANSPORT usually has shorter drawdown period than the NIFTY-50 index.

Based on your interest in ~TRANSPORT you may find it interesting to know that HATSUN has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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