LEATHER THEME shows sign of weakness as investors do cost averaging

~LEATHER showed marginal outperformance today. On a longer term basis, investors in Leather made +0.03% per day. Friday's performance of +0.04% was a outperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Theme constituents]

~LEATHER showed a bearish trend over the last 3 months. During this period ~LEATHER fell by -7.94% and saw a maximum drawdown of -18.82%. There were 2 short signals during this period that returned a cumulative of +7.73% to investors.

Trend

Monthly Performance

Alpha (outperformance)

Heatmap

Volatility

Return distribution

~LEATHER has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 1 Nov, 2017 to 1 Oct, 2018. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 13 days, ~LEATHER underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months ~LEATHER was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.12% per day. It's best return during this period (of +5.77%) was on Wednesday, 10 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.15%) was on Friday, 28 Sep, 2018. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 8 profitable days, which started on 24 Oct, 2018 and went on till 2 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend returned +13.43% to investors.

During the last year ~LEATHER had 7 profitable months and 5 loss making months. ~LEATHER returned profits in more months than NIFTY-50 index. ~LEATHER was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -13.76% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. ~LEATHER had a longer winning streak of profitable months than NIFTY-50 index. It went up in 3 straight months (from Oct 2018 to Dec 2018) during which period it delivered +6.26%. It is interesting to note that both ~LEATHER and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

A highly developed stock exchange cannot be a club for the cult of ethics.
-- Max Weber

~LEATHER is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in ~LEATHER's volatility from 19 Sep, 2018 to 17 Oct, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 21 Sep, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that ~LEATHER has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that ~LEATHER is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than ~LEATHER. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than ~LEATHER in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than ~LEATHER.

Based on your interest in ~LEATHER you may find it interesting to know that BAJFINANCE is a large cap that has shown remarkable performance and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.