46.75 -0.69 (-1.48%) Buy

VIJAYABANK investors herd to book profits while the going is good

13 min read

VIJAYA BANK is a falling knife that can bleed you if you catch it on Friday. It lost -1.48% to close at 46.75. It is currently trading -31% below it's 52 week high of 67.95.

[Themes containing VIJAYABANK]

VIJAYABANK is currently in a up trend. The current bullish signal has generated a profit of +4.82% for VIJAYABANK's investors in the last three months.


VIJAYABANK has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 10 May, 2017. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, VIJAYABANK outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 46% days. Which indicates that on days VIJAYABANK outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

VIJAYABANK was profitable on 52% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.18% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +8.67%, during this period, on Wednesday, 19 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 14 Nov, 2018 and went on till 19 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +4.34% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 22 Nov, 2018 and ended on 28 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -3.36% of investor capital.

VIJAYABANK had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, VIJAYABANK underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. VIJAYABANK was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -29.63% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. VIJAYABANK had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Sep 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -41.59%. It is interesting to note that both VIJAYABANK and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

A simple fact that is ard to learn is that the time to save money is when you have some.
-- Joe Moore

VIJAYABANK is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in VIJAYABANK's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 15 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VIJAYABANK has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that VIJAYABANK is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than VIJAYABANK. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than VIJAYABANK in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than VIJAYABANK.

On a general note (since you are interested in VIJAYABANK), three instruments that are extremely volatile are IGARASHI, NIFTY50-DIV-POINT and TIDEWATER. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.

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