Don't sell VARDMNPOLY now, it outperformed most of it's peers

VARDHMAN POLYTEX LTD. was among the best performers on Wednesday. It returned +2.26% to close at 11.3. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 18% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0084%.

[Themes containing VARDMNPOLY]

VARDMNPOLY showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period VARDMNPOLY returned +5.61% and saw a maximum drawdown of -30.94%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in VARDMNPOLY till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.

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VARDMNPOLY has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 21 Oct, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, VARDMNPOLY underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 59% days.

During the last three months VARDMNPOLY delivered losses on 56% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +17.56%) was on Tuesday, 13 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.38%) was on Friday, 16 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 5 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +11.31% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 15 Nov, 2018 and ended on 21 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -20.92% of investor capital.

On monthly basis, VARDMNPOLY delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. VARDMNPOLY delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. VARDMNPOLY was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -31.27% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. VARDMNPOLY had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -89.56%. It is interesting to note that both VARDMNPOLY and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

An investment in knowledge pays the best interest.
-- Benjamin Franklin

VARDMNPOLY is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in VARDMNPOLY's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 17 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that VARDMNPOLY has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that VARDMNPOLY is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than VARDMNPOLY. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than VARDMNPOLY in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than VARDMNPOLY.

On a general note (since you are interested in VARDMNPOLY), NIFTY-GS-15YRPLUS has performed really well and deserves to be closely tracked for investment opportunities.