2.05 +0.05 (+2.5%) Sell

USHERAGRO does a dead cat bounce, it's still too early to buy into it

13 min read

USHER AGRO LTD ranked among the best performers today. It delivered +2.5% to close at 2.05. It's recent 5 day performance has been -4.76%, -2.33%, +4.88%, -2.38% and -4.55%.

[Themes containing USHERAGRO]

USHERAGRO is currently in a bearish trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +19.02% for investors.


USHERAGRO has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. It showed significant underperformance (compared to the NIFTY-50 index) from 6 Jan, 2016 to 28 Aug, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, USHERAGRO underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 54% days.

During the last three months USHERAGRO delivered losses on 56% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +5.0%) was on Thursday, 13 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -4.76%) was on Thursday, 17 Jan, 2019. The longest stort-term trend during this period was 17 profitable days, which started on 30 Nov, 2018 and went on till 24 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend returned +42.28% to investors.

During the last year USHERAGRO had 3 profitable months and 9 loss making months. USHERAGRO returned profits in fewer months than NIFTY-50 index. USHERAGRO significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Dec 2018, when it returned +50.0% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. USHERAGRO had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Feb 2018 to May 2018) during which period it delivered -91.91%.

The challenge is not to pick the best investment. The challenge is to pick the right investment.
-- Don Connelly

USHERAGRO is currently seeing overall increase in volatility. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing decrease in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in USHERAGRO's volatility from 14 Dec, 2018 to 8 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that USHERAGRO has positive skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors can expect USHERAGRO to make attempts to recover from drawdowns quickly. Which makes USHERAGRO a good candidate for momentum based trading on short-term bullish trends or counter-trends.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than USHERAGRO. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than USHERAGRO in your portfolio.

Based on your interest in USHERAGRO you may find it interesting to know that LTTS, HATSUN and NIITTECH have all shown remarkable performance this year and deserve to be on every investor's watchlist.

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