THE UGAR SUGAR WORKS LTD

13.1 -0.2 (-1.5%) Sell

UGARSUGAR investors take a massive hit

14 min read

THE UGAR SUGAR WORKS LTD was among the worst performers today. It lost -1.5% to close at 13.1. It's recent 5 day performance has been +1.53%, -1.13%, -2.93%, +0.37% and +0.74%.

[Themes containing UGARSUGAR]

UGARSUGAR is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +3.65% for investors.

Trend

UGARSUGAR has been outperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time. Over the last 2 years 11 months and 1 days, UGARSUGAR underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 57% days.

UGARSUGAR returned losses on 59% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.16% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +5.0%, during this period, on Friday, 9 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 13 Nov, 2018 and went on till 20 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -14.82% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 27 Dec, 2018 and ended on 8 Jan, 2019. This bullish trend delivered +10.01% to investors.

UGARSUGAR had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. UGARSUGAR was profitable in more months than NIFTY-50 index. UGARSUGAR was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Mar 2018, returned -20.66% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. UGARSUGAR had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jul 2018) during which period it delivered -65.9%. It is interesting to note that both UGARSUGAR and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

"A bull market is very much like being in love. You don't realise its value till It's gone.

UGARSUGAR is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in UGARSUGAR's volatility from 30 Oct, 2018 to 3 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that UGARSUGAR has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that UGARSUGAR is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than UGARSUGAR. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than UGARSUGAR in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than UGARSUGAR.

On a general note (since you are interested in UGARSUGAR), three instruments that have performed similar to UGARSUGAR are RESPONIND, WELCORP and JUBLINDS. They must all be evaluated as alternative investment options and for diversification.

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