TITAGARH WAGONS LTD.

78.8 -0.99 (-1.25%) Sell

TWL continues its fall as more investors loose confidence

13 min read

TITAGARH WAGONS LTD. showed weakness on Friday. It lost -1.25% to close at 78.8. On a day when the overall market breadth was 71%, it closed higher than 67% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at +0.02%.

[Themes containing TWL]

TWL is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months Buy-and-Hold has been a better strategy (returning +15.54%) for TWL's investors than shorting it.

Trend

TWL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 1 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, TWL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 58% days.

During the last three months TWL delivered losses on 59% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +7.77%) was on Tuesday, 11 Dec, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -2.46%) was on Monday, 26 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 6 Nov, 2018 and went on till 12 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +4.97% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 22 Nov, 2018 and ended on 29 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -8.26% of investor capital.

TWL had 3 profitable and 9 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, TWL underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. TWL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -19.84% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. TWL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 6 straight months (from May 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -48.0%. It is interesting to note that both TWL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Your investment belongs to the market and your profits belong to you.
-- Vijay Kedia

TWL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in TWL's volatility from 22 Oct, 2018 to 10 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TWL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that TWL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TWL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than TWL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TWL.

On a general note (since you are interested in TWL), if you are an investor in IGARASHI, you need to be extra careful (consider limiting your exposure or diversifying) as it is extremely unpredictable and therefore risky.

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