2420.85 +18.39 (+0.76%) Sell

Don't give up on TVSSRICHAK now, it gave a fairly good return

13 min read

TVS SRICHAKRA LIMITED delivered good returns today. It grew by +0.76% to close at 2420.85. It's recent 5 day performance has been -0.72%, 0.0%, +0.53%, -0.58% and -1.54%.

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TVSSRICHAK showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period TVSSRICHAK grew by +1.25% and saw a maximum drawdown of -9.09%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in TVSSRICHAK till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.


TVSSRICHAK has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 30 Sep, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, TVSSRICHAK underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 55% days.

During the last three months TVSSRICHAK delivered losses on 54% days. However, it still managed to end this period in a profit. It's best return during this period (of +4.64%) was on Friday, 2 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -3.27%) was on Monday, 24 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 3 Dec, 2018 and went on till 11 Dec, 2018. The trend delivered -4.78% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 12 Dec, 2018 and ended on 21 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +8.65% to investors.

On monthly basis, TVSSRICHAK delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. TVSSRICHAK delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. TVSSRICHAK was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, May 2018, returned -17.51% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. TVSSRICHAK had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 3 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Oct 2018) during which period it delivered -20.27%. It is interesting to note that both TVSSRICHAK and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Don't always trust what you see. In a bull market even a duck looks like a swan.
-- Vijay Kedia

TVSSRICHAK is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in TVSSRICHAK's volatility from 23 Oct, 2018 to 16 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TVSSRICHAK has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that TVSSRICHAK is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TVSSRICHAK. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than TVSSRICHAK in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TVSSRICHAK.

On a general note (since you are interested in TVSSRICHAK), three large cap instruments that deserve special mention are TCS, BAJFINANCE and INFY. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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