110.2 -4.37 (-3.97%) Sell

TRF is a falling knife, continues to bleed every investor trying to catch it

13 min read

TRF LIMITED was among the worst performers on Tuesday. It lost -3.97% to close at 110.2. On a day when the overall market breadth was 70%, it closed higher than 25% of the market. In comparison, the benchmark NIFTY-50 index closed today at -0.0036%.

[Themes containing TRF]

Buy-and-Hold investors in TRF experienced a maximum drawdown of -20.61% over the last three months. It lost -4.3% during this down trending period. There were both Long and Short signals during this period, where the short signals were significantly more profitable than the long signals.


TRF has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 5 Jan, 2016. TRF is currently at it's worst performance to the NIFTY-50 index and therefore does not make a good investment candidate. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, TRF underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 57% days.

TRF returned losses on 54% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average -0.02% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +12.3%, during this period, on Tuesday, 8 Jan, 2019. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 13 Nov, 2018 and went on till 16 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -6.68% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 11 Dec, 2018 and ended on 19 Dec, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +15.05% to investors.

TRF had 4 profitable and 8 loss making months over the last year. During the last year, TRF underperformed NIFTY-50 index on monthly return basis. TRF was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Sep 2018, returned -31.69% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. TRF had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 4 straight months (from Aug 2018 to Nov 2018) during which period it delivered -43.53%.

Outcome is simply the final score: Who won the game; what numbers came up in a roll of the dice; how high did a stock go. Outcome is the result, regardless of the method used to achieve it. It is not controllable.
-- Barry Ritholtz

TRF is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant surge in TRF's volatility from 25 Oct, 2018 to 26 Dec, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TRF has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that TRF is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TRF. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than TRF in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TRF.

Based on your interest in TRF you may find it interesting to know that VINATIORGA has shown remarkable performance this year and deserves to be on every investors' watchlist.

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