239.45 +0.2 (+0.08%) Sell

Profit booking on the minds of TNPL investors as it ranks better than it's peers but, has not managed to breakout

16 min read

TAMILNADU NEWSPRT & PAPER is looking better than most other alternatives on Friday. It grew by +0.08% to close at 239.45. It is currently trading -48% below it's 52 week high of 466.8.

[Themes containing TNPL]

TNPL is currently in a down trend. The previous short signal in TNPL has not been profitable for investors in general. If you are short on TNPL at current levels please make sure that your allocation is limited and that your portfolio is well diversified.


TNPL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 8 Jan, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, TNPL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 53% days.

During the last three months TNPL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.11% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.61%) was on Thursday, 1 Nov, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.08%) was on Tuesday, 13 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bearish trend during this period which started on 12 Nov, 2018 and went on till 20 Nov, 2018. The trend delivered -15.28% losses to investors. This was followed by a bullish trend that started on 21 Nov, 2018 and ended on 26 Nov, 2018. This bullish trend delivered +1.23% to investors.

On monthly basis, TNPL delivered losses in more months over the last year, than profits. TNPL delivered profits less regularly than NIFTY-50 index. TNPL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -21.77% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. TNPL had a longer winning streak of losing months than NIFTY-50 index. It went down in 5 straight months (from Feb 2018 to Jun 2018) during which period it delivered -51.23%. It is interesting to note that both TNPL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway.
-- John Wayne

TNPL is becoming more volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in TNPL's volatility from 2 Nov, 2018 to 1 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TNPL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that TNPL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

TNPL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, TNPL must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TNPL.

On a general note (since you are interested in TNPL), two instruments that have delivered similar performance as TNPL are VOLTAMP and TORNTPOWER. They are suitable as good alternative investment candidates that can diversify your portfolio.

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