TIL LTD

250.15 -2.96 (-1.19%) Sell

TIL investors take a massive hit

13 min read

TIL LTD was among the worst performers today. It lost -1.19% to close at 250.15. It's recent 5 day performance has been -1.88%, -2.4%, -1.34%, +1.53% and +0.73%.

[Themes containing TIL]

TIL is currently in a down trend. Over the last three months 2 bearish signals have generated a profit of +1.11% for investors.

Trend

TIL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 1 Jan, 2016. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, TIL underperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 56% days.

During the last three months TIL was mostly loss making and delivered on average -0.17% per day. It's best return during this period (of +6.16%) was on Monday, 29 Oct, 2018. While it's worst loss in the same period (of -7.62%) was on Monday, 12 Nov, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 2 Nov, 2018 and went on till 9 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +8.41% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 28 Nov, 2018 and ended on 3 Dec, 2018. This bearish trend lost -3.29% of investor capital.

TIL had 5 profitable and 7 loss making months over the last year. TIL was profitable in more months than NIFTY-50 index. TIL was also a more risky investment than NIFTY-50 index as it's worst month in the last year, Jun 2018, returned -26.28% compared to -6.42% returned by NIFTY-50 index in Sep 2018. TIL and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both TIL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

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TIL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in TIL's volatility from 5 Nov, 2018 to 16 Jan, 2019. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TIL has significant negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that TIL is very risky for short-term investment and can significantly underperform for long durations.

NIFTY-50 index has more chance of extreme outcomes than TIL. Therefore, NIFTY-50 must receive a lower allocation than TIL in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TIL.

On a general note (since you are interested in TIL), three instruments that are extremely volatile are TIDEWATER, IGARASHI and NIFTY50-DIV-POINT. They must all be evaluated prudently and investors are better off avoiding them at the moment.

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