580.2 -10.8 (-1.86%) Sell

Don't buy TIIL now, it is a high risk investment

13 min read

TIIL was among the worst performers today. On a longer term basis, investors in TECHNOCRAFT IND LTD made +0.14% per day. Wednesday's performance of -1.86% was a significant underperformance compared to it's daily average.

[Themes containing TIIL]

TIIL showed a up trend over the last 3 months. During this period TIIL gained +1.83% and saw a maximum drawdown of -11.28%. It has been unusually choppy during this period. Long term investors are better off avoiding investing in TIIL till volatility reduces and a clear trend emerges.


TIIL has been underperforming the NIFTY-50 index in recent time, after having outperformed till 13 Nov, 2018. Over the last 3 years and 1 month, TIIL outperformed the NIFTY-50 index on 49% days. Which indicates that on days TIIL outperforms the NIFTY-50 index, it's performance is marginally better than on the days it underperforms the NIFTY-50 index.

TIIL returned losses on 58% days in the last three months. During this time, it delivered on average +0.04% per day. It delivered it's best daily return of +6.33%, during this period, on Tuesday, 18 Dec, 2018. There was initially a bullish trend during this period which started on 30 Oct, 2018 and went on till 1 Nov, 2018. The bullish trend returned +9.86% to investors. This was followed by a bearish trend that started on 14 Nov, 2018 and ended on 22 Nov, 2018. This bearish trend lost -10.39% of investor capital.

TIIL had 6 profitable and 6 loss making months over the last year. TIIL was profitable in more months than NIFTY-50 index. TIIL significantly outperformed NIFTY-50 index in Oct 2018, when it returned +17.63% compared to +6.56% returned by NIFTY-50 index during it's best month in the last one year - Jul 2018. TIIL and NIFTY-50 index, both had periods of 2 consecutive profitable months. It is interesting to note that both TIIL and NIFTY-50 index significantly outperform during months when quarterly/annual results are announced.

If you do chose to invest in a share, invest for the lifetime.
-- Sandeep Sahajpal

TIIL is becoming less volatile overall. In comparison, the NIFTY-50 index is seeing a fall in volatility. During the last three months, there was a significant fall in TIIL's volatility from 24 Oct, 2018 to 22 Nov, 2018. While there was a significant fall in the NIFTY-50 index's volatility from 31 Oct, 2018 to 5 Dec, 2018.

Advanced/professional short-term investors should note that TIIL has negative skewness in it's return distribution. This indicates that investors may need to stay invested through long periods of drawdown before expecting a recovery.

TIIL has more chance of extreme outcomes than the NIFTY-50 index. Therefore, TIIL must receive a lower allocation than NIFTY-50 in your portfolio. NIFTY-50 index usually has shorter drawdown period than TIIL.

On a general note (since you are interested in TIIL), three mid cap instruments that deserve special mention are HATSUN, CUB and LTTS. They have all outperformed the market and must be closely watched for investment opportunities.

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